The age structure of cases as the key of COVID-19 severity: Longitudinal population-based analysis of European countries during 150 days.

AIMS: Over a million confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across 16 European countries were observed during the first wave of the pandemic. Epidemiological measures like the case fatality rate (CFR) are generally used to determine the severity of the illness. The aim is to investigate the impact of the age structure of reported cases on the reported CFR and possibilities of its demographic adjustment for a better cross-country comparison (age-standardized CFRs, time delay between cases detection and death). METHODS: This longitudinal study uses prospective, population-based data covering 150 days, starting on the day of confirmation of the 100th case in each country. COVerAGE-DB and the Human Mortality Database were used in this regard. The age-standardized CFRs were calculated with and without the time delay of the number of deaths after the confirmation of the cases. RESULTS: The observed decline in the CFRs at the end of the first wave is partly given by the changes in the age structure of confirmed cases. Using the adjusted (age-standardized) CFRs with time delay, the risk of death among confirmed cases is much more stable in comparison to crude (observed) CFRs. CONCLUSIONS: Preventing the spread of COVID-19 among the elderly is an important way to positively influence the overall fatality rate, decrease the number of deaths, and not overload the health systems. The crude CFRs (still often presented) are not sufficient for a proper evaluation of the development across populations nor as a means of identifying the influencing factors.

Racial, Economic, and Health Inequality and COVID-19 Infection in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: There is preliminary evidence of racial and social economic disparities in the population infected by and dying from COVID-19. The goal of this study is to report the associations of COVID-19 with respect to race, health, and economic inequality in the United States. METHODS: We performed an ecological study of the associations between infection and mortality rate of COVID-19 and demographic, socioeconomic, and mobility variables from 369 counties (total population, 102,178,117 [median, 73,447; IQR, 30,761-256,098]) from the seven most affected states (Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Louisiana, Massachusetts). RESULTS: The risk factors for infection and mortality are different. Our analysis shows that counties with more diverse demographics, higher population, education, income levels, and lower disability rates were at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection. However, counties with higher proportion with disability and poverty rates had a higher death rate. African Americans were more vulnerable to COVID-19 than other ethnic groups (1981 African American infected cases versus 658 Whites per million). Data on mobility changes corroborate the impact of social distancing. CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence of racial, economic, and health inequality in the population infected by and dying from COVID-19. These observations might be due to the workforce of essential services, poverty, and access to care. Counties in more urban areas are probably better equipped at providing care. The lower rate of infection, but a higher death rate in counties with higher poverty and disability could be due to lower levels of mobility, but a higher rate of comorbidities and health care access.